2024

Basic Definitions

  • The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of that experiment.

  • An outcome is a possible result of an experiment.

  • An event is a set of outcomes of an experiment.

  • An elementary event is an event which contains only a single outcome in the sample space.

Example

  • Consider the experiment of rolling a die. The sample space is \(\{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}\).

  • The event “rolling an even number” is the set \(\{2, 4, 6\}\).

  • The event “rolling a number less than 3” is the set \(\{1, 2\}\).

  • The event “rolling a number greater than 6” is the empty set \(\emptyset\).

Probability

  • The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1 which represents the likelihood of that event occurring.

  • The probability of an event \(A\) is denoted by \(P(A)\).

  • The probability of the sample space is 1, i.e. \(P(S) = 1\).

  • The probability of the empty set is 0, i.e. \(P(\emptyset) = 0\).

Example

  • Consider the experiment of rolling a die. The probability of the event “rolling an even number” is \(P(\{2, 4, 6\}) = \frac{1}{2}\).

  • The probability of the event “rolling a number less than 3” is \(P(\{1, 2\}) = \frac{1}{3}\).

  • The probability of the event “rolling a number greater than 6” is \(P(\emptyset) = 0\).

Axioms of Probability

  • For any event \(A\), \(P(A) \geq 0\).

  • \(P(S) = 1\).

  • The probability of an event not happening is \(1 - P(A)\).

  • If \(A_1, A_2, \ldots\) are mutually exclusive events, then \(P(A_1 \cup A_2 \cup \ldots) = P(A_1) + P(A_2) + \ldots\).

Events

  • Events \(e_1\) and \(e_2\) are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the likelihood of the other, defined as \[P(e_1 \cap e_2) = P(e_1)P(e_2).\]

  • The notation \(P(e_1 \cap e_2)\) denotes the probability of \(e_1\) and \(e_2\) happening, highlighting the intersection of events.

  • The notation \(P(e_1 \cup e_2)\) denotes the probability of either \(e_1\) or \(e_2\) happening, highlighting the union of events.

Probability Distribution: Discrete

  • Consider flipping a coin twice. The sample space is the following:
Outcome First Flip Second Flip
1 H H
2 H T
3 T H
4 T T

Let \(X\) be the number of heads. The probability distribution of \(X\) is the following:

\(x\) \(P(X = x)\)
0 \(\frac{1}{4}\)
1 \(\frac{1}{2}\)
2 \(\frac{1}{4}\)

Probability Distribution: Continuous

  • Consider the time to failure of a light bulb. The sample space is the set of all positive real numbers.

Computing Probability from a Distribution

  • Discrete: The probability of a particular value \(x\) is \(P(X = x)\). You can just read this directly off the graph or table.

  • continuous: The probability of a value falling in a particular range is the area under the curve between the two values.

  • The probability of a continuous random variable taking any single value is zero.

Discrete Example

  • Consider the probability distribution of the number of heads when flipping a coin 10 times.

  • What is \(P(X = 7)\)?

  • What is \(P(X \leq 3)\)?

Continuous Example

  • Let \(X\) be th erandom variable that determines movement accuracy in a reaching task.

  • \(P(X > 0.6)\)?

  • \(P(0.5 < X < 0.6)\)?